WP4 – Model development

We will adapt the extensively validated MISCAN microsimulation models for the evaluation of breast, cervical and colorectal cancer screening to apply to the different European countries. Given the debate on the ability of screening to reduce cancer mortality, we will critically assess literature on the impact of screening on cancer-specific mortality and incorporate sensitivity analyses on the range of effects. The innovative element of EU-TOPIA involves incorporating variables into the MISCAN models that take account of the diversity within Europe, in particular background risk (incidence and mortality) of disease, demographics and country-specific information about key indicators and health services. For each cancer type, the MISCAN model will be further developed into a web-based tool for self-evaluation of cancer screening programmes which can be used throughout Europe. Users will be trained in the use of this tool in workshop 2.