WP5 – Evaluation: quantification and optimisation

The design of the screening programmes (e.g. screening test, ages and frequency) and key indicators as collected in WP 3 will be incorporated into the models to estimate the health outcomes of screening in 2015, both for the total population and for relevant demographic subgroups. The existing screening programmes can then be optimized by improving the level of the key indicators or by changing the design of the screening programme. Recommendations can then be made to optimize existing screening programmes by actions that improve the key indicators or by changing the design of the screening programme. Potential changes that can be explored relate to screening tests, ages and frequency, but also discontinuation of screening. Equally important are modifiable factors such as referral rates, that will impact sensitivity and specificity, and thereby benefits and harms of screening. The impact of these changes by 2025 will also be quantified in this WP. The evaluation and optimization will first be performed for the exemplar countries and then applied to all countries throughout Europe, following appropriate training, in workshop 2.